Thursday, September 3, 2009

Decreased Volatility Breakout Strategy (Part II)

By Ahmad Hassam

Aging Trend: This is the period of consolidation as the trend comes to maturity. Volatility tends to decrease at this stage of the trend as the momentum of the trend exhausts itself. This is the period where lot of profit taking will take place.

Both the bulls and the bears are hesitant to make daring moves at this stage of the trend. Experienced traders now know that the trend has aged and it is the best time to get out of the trend. They try to get out of their trades at this stage of the trend by closing their positions. This satisfies the appetites of inexperienced traders as they consolidate their positions by taking on the positions abandoned by the experienced traders.

Currency prices have moved by a large amount in the previous period of high volatility. This is the period of consolidation and the prices tend to stay calm during this period. The trend takes a short break and the volatility is low during this stage of the trend.

End of Trend: This is the last stage of the trend and this is the time when the prevailing trend ends and reverses itself after some new information is revealed about a currency that changes the opinion of the crowd. As the market players tend to absorb the information, this results in the rapid adjustment of prices within a short time.

Traders become desperate to get out of their positions especially if they have been caught on the wrong side of the market. Many stops will get triggered during this stage of the trend.

There is a sharp follow through of the prices in the reversed direction during this stage of the trend. Now you know and understand that within a trend, currency prices can experience decreased volatility followed by increased volatility as the crowd psychology keeps on changing.

You must know that sudden release of a breaking economic or geopolitical news can cause a lot of volatility in the forex market. Traders with open positions during this low period of volatility are the most vulnerable to unanticipated news. This volatility continues as long as the news is not absorbed by the market. Decreased volatility can be found during trending or ranging phases.

During this time gains can be made from the unsuspecting players and this is known as the Decreased Volatility Breakout Strategy. Deceased volatility provides an excellent opportunity to traders to prepare and profit from an imminent change from low to high volatility.

How do you measure that the change in volatility? There are several technical indicators that can help you visualize the volatility in the currency prices. The success of this strategy lies in measuring the volatility of the forex market correctly. There are various ways to do that.

You can use triangle patterns as one of the best indicators of decreasing price volatility in the currency price charts. Combine the triangle patterns with technical indicators to confirm or deny decreasing price volatility. Two of the most useful indicators that can help you measure the volatility of the currency prices are: 1) Moving Averages and 2) Bollinger Bands.

When a particular type of triangle has been identified by the trader, a high probability trade may be in sight. All triangles show decreasing price volatility in the forex market. You can take advantage of the decreasing price volatility in the forex market through identifying the triangle formations.

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